Discussion about this post

User's avatar
James Farrell's avatar

This summer, when I was made aware that Ukrainian drone teams were constructing (in tents just behind the lines) and successfully deploying visually-guided and highly lethal drones “in real-time” and well beyond Russian lines, at a cost of around $500 US per drone, I realized that our own military could never possibly do that.

Not because there were no personnel who were CAPABLE of that, not because we lack the technology or the $$, but because the procurement process for ANY novel weaponry would mean that that weaponry would be obsolete years before it was ever available.

THAT MUST CHANGE.

At the accelerating speed with which ANY technology quickly becomes obsolete in the modern era, our military and our government cannot afford to fall behind due to lethargic and Byzantine procedures.

In the last year it has come to light that many of our Air Traffic Control locations are still getting by on computers requiring “floppy disks” to be fully operational!! That is NOT a function of any lack of funding for current hardware.

When that level of sclerosis infects our military branches, we are ALL at risk. Why? Because if you and I know this, so do those who wish us harm.

Chartertopia's avatar

I think your Challenger Force has a lot of potential, primarily for putting a sense of urgency back into the procurement process. The idea of taking 20 years on a single design is ludicrous. The idea of constantly fussing with a design after construction has started is ludicrous. It only makes sense to bureaucrats who think the process is what matters, not producing something. Look at private industry, always trying new breakfast cereals, new vacuum cleaners, new tire designs, new this that and the other, and if something flops, well, the drawing board already has several more products to try out.

But the powers that be will never tolerate it. Just as the three branches (legislative, executive, and judicial) were supposed to keep each other in check but turned out to cover for each other when government itself was threatened; just as Marines and Navy are mortal enemies until the Army enters the picture, and they will gladly combine forces against the Air Force, and all will combined against civilians.

The history of those boondoggles is my key to what is wrong with procurement.

You left out the F-22, which took so long to enter production that they redid the electronics from scratch 2 or 3 times because the previous generation of electronics were so obsolete that the factories which built them were no longer available.

The F-35 was doomed from the start because they had forgotten the lesson of the TFX/F-111, that insisting one plane perform two such disparate roles (carrier and land-based) did not work; McNamara may have been duped by how well the F-4 Phantom II succeeded, but that began as a carrier plane. Throwing VTOL into the F-35 mix made McNamara look like a genius.

The LCS failed for much the same reason: one ship with a zillion roles based on swappable modules.

Someone had an interesting solution many years ago to airplane design and procurement: Suppose the Air Force decides it needs 1000 fighters and they have an average life span of 20 years. Every year, bid to buy 50 new fighters, deliverable that year or the next. After delivery, mothball the factory such that production can be ramped up within weeks. As factories age, recycle them based on which planes prove the best.

His scheme was mean to avoid the 20 year design cycles for super planes which are leaps and bounds ahead of the previous 20-year design cycle result, in favor of incremental improvements every year. If one year’s winner turns out to be a turkey, it’s only 5% of their inventory; limit them to trainers, expend them as target drones, convert them to cruise missiles, but whatever happens, it’s only a 5% loss, and the previous two or three winners are all better. As for the manufacturers, if all they are doing is tweaking incremental improvements, they should be able to monkey around with experimental designs on their own and gradually work the successful changes into their incremental designs. It sure beats betting the farm on radical designs which dictate the next 20 years of the company’s future. We might actually be able to return to real competition among five or more independent manufacturers, instead of two conglomerates.

I have no idea if his scheme would work, but I don’t see how it could be any worse than taking 20 years to design a plane which ended up so expensive they could only buy 200 of them. That’s 10 per year equivalent.

4 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?